US oil prices fell below $80 per barrel, down 32% in nine days. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 by April priced at 0% YES.

Trump claims Iran will never close the Strait of Hormuz again. The odds of the US lifting its blockade by May 31 now sit at ...

US blockades Iranian ports, escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. UK sending warships through the strait by April 30, ...

US and Iran negotiate a deal that may release $20B for uranium stockpile. Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 ...

Trump hints at progress on the US-Iran nuclear deal, but Tehran denies uranium handover. Diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 ...

Psaki dismissed the likelihood of invoking the 25th Amendment against Trump. Removal by April 30 at 0.5% YES, and by June 30 ...

Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to drop over 10%. Traffic normalization by April 30 at 100% YES.

Indian refiners pay for Iranian oil in yuan under a U.S. waiver expiring April 19, 2026. Crude oil hitting $90 by June at 0% YES.

Iran and the US have declared the Strait of Hormuz open. The market on traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 72.5% ...

The ongoing conflict involving Iran is squeezing European airlines, with effects now visible in oil prediction markets. Crude ...

Bitcoin’s break above $77K is a strong signal, but traders aren’t budging because stability above $62K was already priced in.

Israel admits disarming Hezbollah needs full Lebanon occupation. Military action in Beirut by April 1, 2026 at 100% YES.