US Treasury completes a $15B debt buyback amid declining foreign demand. Fed decisions from January to April at 48% YES.

Political scientist Robert Pape says U.S. forces are moving toward Iran, contradicting diplomatic rhetoric from Washington.

The U.S. dollar declines as Iran peace talks reduce safe-haven demand. Bank of Japan rate cut after April 2026 at 0.4% YES.

Iran-US blockades in the Strait of Hormuz raise oil transit concerns. Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 at 82% YES.

Lebanon accuses Israel of a ceasefire breach while traders remain confident. Suspension of Israel's Lebanon offensive by ...

OpenAI expands its TAC program, impacting Anthropic's competitive position; Anthropic's chance of being the third best AI ...

President Trump’s falling out with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is adding strain to US-Europe relations, and the Polymarket ...

G7 finance ministers pledge economic stability amid the Iran conflict. Bank of Japan rate cut after April 2026 at 0.4% YES.

Trump invited Netanyahu and Aoun to the White House for talks. Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 at 100% YES.

Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the Polymarket contract on whether the model would ship by May 31, which ...

Pezeshkian praised Pakistan's role in US-Iran talks, reducing ceasefire breach odds to 9% YES; Iran to surrender uranium by ...

López Aliaga faces legal scrutiny for inflammatory remarks, dropping his odds for the 2026 Peruvian presidential election to ...