Robert Pape warns of limited US options, risking UAE stability without policy change. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by ...

Iran's energy crisis worsens Europe's inflation, making a 50 bps ECB rate cut by April 2026 unlikely; market at 0.3% YES.

A third AC-130J Ghost Rider gunship has arrived in CENTCOM area. US forces entering Iran by April 30 at 100% YES.

Trump hints at a possible end to the Iran conflict as oil prices soar. War declaration by December 31 at 7.5% YES.

Macron and Starmer will co-chair a summit on Strait of Hormuz security in April 2026. UK warship deployment by April 30 at ...

Netanyahu's coalition remains at 49 seats while the opposition holds 61, with the chance of him leaving office by June 30 at ...

US expands blockade to target Iran's shadow fleet. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalcy by April 30 at 55.5% YES.

Iran's strategic failures have led to a reassessment of regime collapse risk. Regime fall by June 30 now at 6.5% YES.

President Trump declared a “total and complete victory” with Iran agreeing to a 14-day ceasefire, while the Polymarket ...

BlackRock’s IBIT bought 1,009 BTC worth $81 million, continuing its buying streak. The market for Bitcoin above $62,000 on ...

Germany's GDP forecast is cut to 0.6% amid the Iran war. No US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 at 2.7% YES.

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates in June, driven by inflationary pressures from the ongoing Iran ...