Iran-US blockades in the Strait of Hormuz raise oil transit concerns. Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 at 82% YES.

Pezeshkian praised Pakistan's role in US-Iran talks, reducing ceasefire breach odds to 9% YES; Iran to surrender uranium by ...

OpenAI expands its TAC program, impacting Anthropic's competitive position; Anthropic's chance of being the third best AI ...

President Trump’s falling out with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is adding strain to US-Europe relations, and the Polymarket ...

The U.S. dollar declines as Iran peace talks reduce safe-haven demand. Bank of Japan rate cut after April 2026 at 0.4% YES.

G7 finance ministers pledge economic stability amid the Iran conflict. Bank of Japan rate cut after April 2026 at 0.4% YES.

Trump invited Netanyahu and Aoun to the White House for talks. Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 at 100% YES.

The Pentagon's leadership shakeup continues with the ouster of Army Chief Gen. Randy George. Gulf State military action ...

Residents are returning to southern Lebanon amid celebrations following a 10-day ceasefire with Israel. The ceasefire, which ...

Anthropic has released Claude Opus 4.7, resolving the Polymarket contract on whether the model would ship by May 31, which ...

Ukrainian PM's visit to Washington focused on reconstruction, not ceasefire talks. Ceasefire by May 31, 2026 at 5.9% YES.

López Aliaga faces legal scrutiny for inflammatory remarks, dropping his odds for the 2026 Peruvian presidential election to ...